Jefferson

• Today

  76°high

  Mostly Cloudy then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  A slight chance of rain showers between 1pm and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. South wind 8 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

  Wind S 8 to 12 mph · 46% chance of precipitation

• Tonight

  64°low

  Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely

  A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 8pm and 9pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9pm and 10pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

  Wind S 10 mph · 73% chance of precipitation

• Sunday

  75°high

  Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

  Wind S 10 mph · 81% chance of precipitation

• Sunday Night

  63°low

  Showers And Thunderstorms Likely

  Showers and thunderstorms likely before 7pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7pm and 11pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. South wind 2 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

  Wind S 2 to 8 mph · 64% chance of precipitation

• Monday

  76°high

  Showers And Thunderstorms

  A chance of rain showers between 8am and 11am, then showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 76. South wind 2 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

  Wind S 2 to 7 mph · 76% chance of precipitation

• Monday Night

  62°low

  Showers And Thunderstorms then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

  Wind S 2 to 6 mph · 76% chance of precipitation

• Tuesday

  76°high

  Showers And Thunderstorms Likely

  Showers and thunderstorms likely after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  Wind S 2 to 7 mph · 73% chance of precipitation

• Tuesday Night

  63°low

  Showers And Thunderstorms Likely then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  Wind S 2 to 6 mph · 73% chance of precipitation

• Wednesday

  78°high

  Showers And Thunderstorms Likely

  A chance of rain showers between 8am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  Wind SW 2 to 6 mph · 69% chance of precipitation

• Wednesday Night

  63°low

  Showers And Thunderstorms Likely then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  Wind SW 1 to 5 mph · 69% chance of precipitation

• Thursday

  80°high

  Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

  Wind SW 1 to 5 mph · 62% chance of precipitation

• Thursday Night

  63°low

  Showers And Thunderstorms Likely then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

  Wind W 3 mph · 62% chance of precipitation

• Friday

  81°high

  Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

  Wind W 5 mph · 56% chance of precipitation

• Friday Night

  64°low

  Showers And Thunderstorms Likely then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.

  Wind W 3 mph · 56% chance of precipitation

The reasoning behind the forecast, in the forecaster’s own words. In this region the elevation detail that never reaches a point forecast usually shows up here.

000
FXUS61 KRNK 010605
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
205 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated. No significant changes to the overall weather
forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast this
weekend, with the possibility of 1-3 inches of rain and a few
strong/severe storms.

2) Unsettled weather continues through the front half of the
week, with a possible decrease in convective coverage at the end
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... 
Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast this weekend, 
with the possibility of 1-3 inches of rain and a few 
strong/severe storms.

A storm system, anchored by an area of low pressure over eastern 
Iowa, is expected to slowly move southeast toward the Ohio Valley 
today. Moisture is expected to rapidly deepen across the forecast 
area Saturday ahead of this system, with precipitable water values 
likely reaching somewhere between 1.5 and 2 inches by Saturday 
evening. To put this in somewhat of a climatological perspective, 
these values are approximately 2 standard deviations above normal. 
As the shortwave trough drives the low closer to our region, 
disturbances will move through the moist airmass in place over our 
area and lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms. We 
could see an isolated to scattered smattering of showers and storms 
as early as this afternoon, primarily across western North Carolina. 
Convective development will become more likely, though, after 
midnight, with a greater coverage anticipated through Sunday night.

By Sunday, we'll primarily be watching for the development of two 
potential weather impacts across our region. 

The first thing is heavy rainfall, especially given how moist we 
expect the airmass to be across the forecast area. The storm system 
will be rather slow-moving, allowing a series of disturbances to 
move across the region. The development of off-and-on showers and 
storms over similar areas could result in localized ponding/flooding 
issues. As such, WPC has our area outlined for a Marginal, or Level 
1 Risk, of excessive rainfall for Sunday. 

The second thing is the possibility of isolated strong or severe 
thunderstorms. The right entrance region of the upper jet should be 
moving across our neck of the woods Sunday afternoon, resulting in 
increased diffluence aloft. Thermodynamically, mixed-layer CAPE 
values around 1000 J/kg (maybe a little more) could seen, especially 
from Southside Virginia into the North Carolina Piedmont. With the 
increased forcing provided by the surface low and cold front to our 
west, we could see some isolated strong or severe storms in this 
environment. There are a couple of limiting factors in my mind... 
(1) Boundary layer wind speeds might be a tad low to get significant 
storm-scale organization. (2) If precipitation is more widespread 
than currently forecast, then instability should be lower. Given the 
overall risk, SPC has our area outlined for a Marginal Risk (Level 
1) for seeing severe storms Sunday with the primary impact being 
damaging winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2... 
Unsettled weather continues through the front half of the week,
with a possible decrease in convective coverage at the end of the
week.

As an upper-level low settles into the Tennessee Valley, it should 
slowly push a cold front through most of our area before it stalls. 
The upper low is then expected to "sit and spin" close to the 
forecast area through much of the upcoming week. This feature will 
continue to send disturbances through a rather moist airmass, 
resulting in continued odds of seeing daily showers and 
thunderstorms. There's some indication that convective probabilities 
may decrease during the latter half of the week as the upper low 
ejects toward the Northeast U.S. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The primary aviation impact through Saturday night will likely be 
gusty gradient winds of 15-20 kts as an area of low pressure moves 
into the OH Valley. S winds should back toward the SE by 02/0600 
UTC, with sustained wind speeds 5-10 kts.

Otherwise, VFR flight categories are expected to continue through at 
least 02/0000 UTC. The exception may be some late night/early 
morning BR at terminals in SE WV, especially IVOF KLWB. More 
widespread flight category reductions will likely begin to spread NE 
from W NC after 02/0300 UTC, as moisture increases ahead of an 
approaching storm system. And while ISOLD-SCTD SHRA/TSRA cannot be 
ruled out, the odds of any one TAF site receiving precipitation 
remain low. As such, convection was not mentioned in the 01/0600 UTC 
TAFs.

OUTLOOK SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 

Sunday-Monday: Restrictions expected as a storm system brings SCTD 
to numerous SHRA/TSRA to the region. This will result in periods of 
lower CIGs and reduced VSBYs

Tuesday-Wednesday: Unsettled weather and possible restrictions are 
expected to continue. There are indications that SHRA/TSRA 
probabilities will decrease slightly by mid-late week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...DB