Lake Lure

• Today

  84°high

  Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1pm and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2pm and 3pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 3pm and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. South wind 1 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

  Wind S 1 to 5 mph · 60% chance of precipitation

• Tonight

  70°low

  Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Patchy Fog

  A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 8pm and 11pm, then patchy fog and showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. South southeast wind around 2 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

  Wind SSE 2 mph · 89% chance of precipitation

• Sunday

  84°high

  Patchy Fog

  Rain showers likely and patchy fog before 8am, then patchy fog and a slight chance of rain showers between 8am and 10am, then a chance of rain showers and patchy fog between 10am and 11am, then patchy fog and showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. South southeast wind 0 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

  Wind SSE 0 to 7 mph · 81% chance of precipitation

• Sunday Night

  68°low

  Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11pm and midnight, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between midnight and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. South southwest wind 0 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

  Wind SSW 0 to 6 mph · 28% chance of precipitation

• Monday

  85°high

  Partly Sunny then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. South southwest wind 0 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

  Wind SSW 0 to 6 mph · 52% chance of precipitation

• Monday Night

  67°low

  Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

  Wind WSW 0 to 3 mph · 47% chance of precipitation

• Tuesday

  86°high

  Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  A slight chance of rain showers before 8am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 9am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2pm and 5pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

  Wind WSW 0 to 5 mph · 59% chance of precipitation

• Tuesday Night

  68°low

  Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

  Wind WNW 0 to 3 mph · 53% chance of precipitation

• Wednesday

  87°high

  Slight Chance Rain Showers then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  A slight chance of rain showers between 8am and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

  Wind SW 0 to 5 mph · 47% chance of precipitation

• Wednesday Night

  69°low

  Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

  Wind W 2 mph · 47% chance of precipitation

• Thursday

  88°high

  Partly Sunny then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely

  Showers and thunderstorms likely after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

  Wind SW 0 to 3 mph · 56% chance of precipitation

• Thursday Night

  69°low

  Showers And Thunderstorms Likely then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

  Wind WSW 1 mph · 56% chance of precipitation

• Friday

  88°high

  Mostly Sunny then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

  Wind SW 2 mph · 52% chance of precipitation

• Friday Night

  69°low

  Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.

  Wind W 1 mph · 52% chance of precipitation

The reasoning behind the forecast, in the forecaster’s own words. In this region the elevation detail that never reaches a point forecast usually shows up here.

000
FXUS62 KGSP 011047
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
647 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes for this forecast update.

Aviation discussion was updated for the 12z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Another frontal system arrives from the west this later today
through Sunday. The front may briefly stall across our area
early next week, bringing back high rain chances, below-normal
temperatures, and some potential for locally heavy rainfall.
2. A return to typical mid-summer weather is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Another frontal system arrives from the west this 
later today through Sunday. The front may briefly stall across our 
area early next week, bringing back high rain chances, below-normal 
temperatures, and some potential for locally heavy rainfall.

Stout upper ridging remains entrenched over the Desert Southwest 
with active northern stream flow extending from the Pacific 
Northwest into the Mississippi Valley. A large upper low is pushing 
onshore over the Pacific Northwest with a lead wave dropping out of 
the Midwest into the Mississippi Valley. This will be the main 
feature of interest through the weekend as it slowly slides across 
the Ohio Valley and into the Appalachians. An attendant surface 
reflection will accompany the wave with a frontal boundary draped 
from central Kentucky into Tennessee. Low-level mass response will 
strengthen a 20-35kt low-level jet that is forecast to translate 
across the region late this afternoon through Sunday. This will 
foster the advection of a deep plume of anomalous moisture with 
PWATs surging to 2-2.4", which will challenge daily records at 
Peachtree City, GA and Greensboro, NC upper air sites. 

The 00z suite of CAMs is in generally good agreement that a band of 
convection on the leading edge of the moisture plume will push into 
the mountains and northeast Georgia late morning into early 
afternoon and through the Upstate and foothills/Piedmont through 
peak heating. Additional clusters of upstream convection are also 
progged to develop from Alabama into eastern Tennessee and Georgia. 
This activity will accompany the low-level jet and at least some 
extent will persist into the forecast area overnight into early 
Sunday morning outside of the traditional diurnal window. The main 
concern will be the potential for several instances of locally heavy 
rainfall and flash flooding from training and slow moving storms, 
especially along the southern escarpment. CAMs diverge, however, 
with how this activity evolves overnight and the extent of coverage. 
The HRRR solution is the most aggressive with a notable cluster of 
storms over the Upstate and southern escarpment and highlights the 
potential for isolated rainfall totals of 3-6" over a short several 
hour window. Should this materialize, isolated flash flooding would 
definitely be possible owing to very moist profiles and modest 
moisture transport within the cloud-bearing layer.

Heading into Sunday, the deep moisture plume will be predominately 
situated from along and east of I-85 as the upper trough axis and 
frontal boundary approaches. Extensive cloud cover and ongoing 
convection during the morning hours casts uncertainty as to the 
extent of destabilization and development of additional showers and 
storms by the afternoon and evening. Given the abundance of deep 
moisture and forcing from the wave it would appear likely that at 
least scattered to numerous showers and storms should redevelop in a 
modestly unstable airmass pending at least a few hours of daytime 
heating. Once again, any additional activity will pose a risk for 
isolated flash flooding, especially for any storms that train over 
areas that have already seen higher rainfall totals. A secondary 
threat will exist for an isolated strong to marginally severe storm 
or two both Saturday and Sunday. Deep-layer shear increases on 
Sunday with the approach of the wave, but thermodynamic parameters 
will be lackluster otherwise. Near moist adiabatic lapse rates and a 
dearth of DCAPE within a very moist profile and tall/skinny CAPE 
profiles will generally preclude a threat for damaging winds. 
Nonetheless a few isolated water loaded downburst will remain 
possible.


Key message 2: A return to typical mid-summer weather is expected next 
week.

Guidance begins to diverge regarding the evolution of the synoptic 
pattern as we head into early next week. Some guidance keeps some 
semblance of a closed upper low over the Southern Appalachians while 
others shift the wave northeast of the area. At the same time, a 
subtropical ridge will build offshore. At the very least, the region 
will reside within a relative weakness between two upper ridges, 
which will favor at least traditional diurnal convection each day. 
Should a weak upper low linger across the region we could see higher 
than climo PoPs hang on longer into the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR to IFR stratus has overspread much of 
the area early this morning, especially east of the mountains. 
Ceilings reductions will continue through around mid morning before 
low clouds finally lift and scatter with a return to VFR. This will 
be short lived as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are 
expected from late this afternoon through the overnight hours and 
into early Sunday morning. Associated visibility and ceiling 
restrictions can be expected with any of this activity. Another bout 
of low stratus is expected to develop again tonight as a very moist 
airmass remains in place. Widespread IFR is expected with periods of 
LIFR not out of the question along with the potential for some 
patchy fog. Light and variable winds will remain light roughly out 
of the south.

Outlook: Shower and thunderstorm chances and associated restrictions
expected to continue through at least the middle of next week.
While convection will be most active during the afternoon/evening,
some degree of overnight and early morning coverage is anticipated 
tonight into early Sunday. Widespread low clouds and fog are 
possible Sunday morning and again Monday morning. A return to mostly 
diurnal convection and early morning mountain valley fog/stratus is 
expected during the new work week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

TW